13 critical steps that'll get our butts to Mars by the 2030s
We wish we had better news to report, but the official timetable for that next "small step for Man" isn't all that timely. Our species has fallen depressingly short of the star-hopping future we were promised in the post-Apollo orgy of interplanetary sci-fi — and that was all before the global economic train wreck.
Still, the next few decades aren't entirely without promise. Two trends are in our favor: 1) space exploration is becoming an increasingly international sport — more competition will breed more results — and 2) the advent of a commercial space industry will shepherd a nimbler, more efficient approach to exploration.
To that end, we present some of the projects that hold the most promise for Humanity's Big Move into the final frontier. While plenty of cool scientific toys will be flung out into the cosmos in the coming years, for this piece we're concentrating on the missions and projects that will directly lead to getting our species' collective butt back into the cosmos.
Earth is so yesterday.
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Step 1: Mars500 (Right Now) While the Mars500 project isnât taking place anywhere near our red space friend, it may prove pivotal in getting us there. Six volunteers are being isolated in a simulated 520-day-round-trip interplanetary voyage, which will in turn test our ability to withstand the long-term missions necessary for a trip to Mars. The project has reached its final stage and is "returning" to Earth. Since June of last year, the six make-believe rocket men have been holed up in a make-believe spaceship in an underground bunker near Moscow, where they are undergoing a barrage of very real physical and psychological tests. In return for their year-and-a-half of service, each astro-not will earn close to $100,000. [Image]
Step 2: Privatization of space (Right Now) As NASA seeks to replace the Shuttle program with a more efficient means of transporting supplies and humans to and from space, the agency is also looking to private space companies to lead the way. At the pace we're going, this decade will definitely see the dawn of the privatization of space. Numerous companies are vying for a piece of the low-orbital pie by supply services to public space programs, launching corporate satellites and growing the fledgling space tourism industry. [Image]
Step 3: Curiosity goes to Mars (2011) In order to establish a true Total Recall-esque human colony on Mars, engineers on Earth must gather as much information as possible on our crimson-hued neighbor. To this end, scientists will send a number of science 'bots to Mars over the course of the next decade, the next of which will be NASA's Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will carry a rover named âCuriosity" that will sample various rock and soil specimens to determine if/how humans could one day survive there. In addition, Curiosity will seek out signs of past or present microbiological life. The MSL is scheduled to launch by December of this year and will touchdown on Mars in August of 2012. [Image]
Step 4: Completed International Space Station (2012) Finally scheduled to be completed next year (though there will surely be future expansions), the International Space Station (ISS) has become a multi-billion dollar global mascot for space exploration. This football-field-length space depot will, ideally, act as a way station for scientific research, playing host to a rotating roster of human inhabitants. Most importantly, the ISS will act as a base for more ambitious missions beyond the Stationâs low-Earth orbit. For as long as it lasts, anyway. If space agencies can keep it supplied, that is. [Image]
Step 5: Chinese Space Station, Tiangong (2013) China is not officially part of the ISS team (though they do take part in various ISS-based science missions), so in a show of nationalist me-too-ism the booming Asian nation has begun preparations for its own space station. The Tiangong ("heavenly palace") station is scheduled to lay down its initial space stakes sometime in 2013. The Chinese station will be far smaller than the ISS (roughly 1/8th the size), but will be joined by the expanding modules Tiangong 2 in 2015 and the Tiangong 3 in 2016. While these may be signs of an impending zero-gravity territorial dispute, it should be noted that the Chinese stations will be built with the same docking modules as the ISS meaning it could actually become part of the ISS at a future time. [Image]
Step 6: International presence on the Moon (This Decade) Though they have quite conspicuously failed to supply a definitive timetable, the European Space Agency (ESA) has announced plans to launch both manned and unmanned missions to our moon. Unmanned lunar missions have also been proposed by the Indian and Chinese space agencies. Meanwhile, the good folks at Google are sponsoring the Google Lunar X Prize, which will award $20 million to the first privately-funded team that is able to send a robot to the moon that can travel 500 meters and transmit video, images and data back to Earth. The privately funded team Astrobiotic has stated plans to launch its lunar rover in December of 2013. [Image]
Step 7: MAVEN, Mars atmosphere probe (2013) For the next chapter in NASAâs Mars Scout Program the MAVEN space probe (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN) will be the first probe to survey Marsâ upper atmosphere, specifically the occurrence and composition of radioactive isotopes. This information will help engineers on Earth prepare future planetary colonizers for the harsh alien environment. The probe is scheduled to launch sometime in late 2013 and will enter Martian orbit in September of 2014. [Image]
Step 8: ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (2016) Originally planned for launch this year, the delayed ESA/NASA project known as ExoMars (short for "Exobiology on Mars") was split into two separate mission. The first part of ExoMars will consist of a satellite known as the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO). Due to budgetary concerns, the TGO will piggyback on a previously scheduled Martian weather satellite which is scheduled to launch in January of in 2016 and will enter Martian orbit in October of that year (the second part of ExoMars, a rover will launch in 2018âread more later). This first segment the ExoMars mission will scan the Martian atmosphere for signs of Martian life such as plumes of methane gas, which are often a telltale sign of biologic activity. [Image]
Step 9: ExoMars Rover mission (2018) Following ExoMarsâ first segment scheduled launch in 2016, ExoMarsâ corresponding life-sniffing rover is scheduled to begin its mission in May of 2018 and will achieve a Martian rendezvous in January of 2019. The ExoMars Rover will examine and collect rock and soil samples in a search of traces of microbiological life. While it will have the ability to collect and test samples, scientists wonât be able to get their hands on them until the end of the following decade when a very tentatively scheduled mission has been devised to send these samples back to Earth (see more later). [Image]
Step 10: Manned mission to an asteroid (2025) Before putting footprints on Mars, NASA has set its sites on putting a Man on an asteroid. While a manned asteroid mission has some definite operational hurdles, it also boasts several advantages over a Martian mission. First, there are a number of candidate asteroids that are closer than Mars and — perhaps most importantly — they possess only a tiny fraction of Marsâ gravity and a negligible atmosphere, meaning that escaping the asteroidâs gravitational pull for the return trip would be a far easier endeavor. NASA has set the goal of sending a human to an asteroid by the middle of the next decade. [Image]
Step 11: Space Elevator (mid-2020s) Earlier this month researchers from around the globe gathered at the 2011 edition of the Space Elevator Conference sponsored by Microsoft. While still a ways off, many, many people are taking the concept of a âspace elevator" quite seriously. With the ability to lift cargo and passengers from Earth into space, a functioning space elevator would greatly reduce the cost of reaching low-Earth orbit and subsequently the cost of constructing and launching vehicles that would take us further into the solar system. There are various huge obstacles to overcome (finding a material strong enough to sustain such a structure, for one), but some experts are hopeful we will have a functioning space elevator by the middle of next decade. [Image]
Step 12: Martian sample return mission (2027 at the earliest) Aside from a few spare meteorites that scientist believe to have originated on Mars, researchers have never gotten their hands on any actual samples from Big Red. And if the current timetable bears out, they probably wonât until late in the 2020s. NASA has laid out some nebulous plans for a vessel that will have the ability to land on Mars, collect the samples from the ExoMars rover, achieve lift-off and head back to Earth. The best scenario would return samples to the Earth in 2027. So, donât hold your breath waiting for these Martian samples. Seriously. Youâll die. [Image]
Step 13: Finally putting a human on Mars (Mid-2030s) Stop me if youâve heard this one before: humans will one day be on Mars. While weâve been talking about this inevitable next step for decades, NASAâs current schedule has it set for another 25 years. Of course, some technological innovation could come along that could moot any of the multiple engineering barriers to interplanetary travel and alter the timetable drastically. But until then, remember to clear your schedule for some time in 2036, because thereâs supposed to something historical going down. [Image]